2008 NFL Draft Analysis

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WINNERS:
Kansas City Chiefs – Everybody has been touting the Chiefs as the team with the best draft, but I still have to agree with them. Glenn Dorsey is one of the top 3 players in this draft, and he will make an immediate impact on the now Jared Allen-less Kansas City defensive line. He has Tommie Harris-type potential and will be a force in the NFL as long as he can stay healthy. Branden Albert is a safe pick, and will be a guy that will be a fixture along that offensive line for the next 10 years. The Chiefs’ offensive line is aging fast, and they need an influx of young talent to replenish their declining veterans on that unit. Albert is one of the best guards to come out of the college ranks in years. Brandon Flowers, the Chiefs’ selection with the 35^th overall pick, is a prospect that I really like. His size-speed combination is less than enticing, but he is a pure football player. Despite his lack of size, Flowers can really lay the lumber and he has “it”. The football instincts, toughness, and confidence are all there along with the experience, quickness, and playmaking ability. He will provide excellent depth behind veterans Ty Law and Patrick Surtain. Jamaal Charles was a steal in the 3^rd round, as he is the ideal complement to Larry Johnson and will keep Johnson’s carries down. His quickness and big-play ability will be welcomed to the Kansas City offense. Brad Cottam is an interesting developmental prospect at tight end and will be an adequate replacement for Tony Gonzalez when he retires. DaJuan Morgan was a steal late in the third round and could be a starter from Day One in the weak Kansas City secondary. Through the rest of the way, WR Will Franklin and OT Barry Richardson were two picks I really liked in the fourth and the sixth round, respectively. The Chiefs did a great job; they addressed a lot of need areas on their football team.

Arizona Cardinals – The Cardinals didn’t have as many picks (7) as a lot of the teams on this list of Draft Day winners, but they did a very good job with the picks they had. They drafted for value and got three players who will contribute a lot with their first three picks. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is a project, but a player with his athletic ability is a steal with the 16^th overall pick. Cromartie, standing at 6’2” with a 4.33 second 40 yard dash time and a 38.5” vertical jump, could be a star in this league. Calais Campbell, their second round selection, has phenomenal potential and could be a star. He is 6’8” and approaching 300 pounds and has the athleticism that is coveted from defensive ends in today’s NFL. If he can return to his 2006 form, Campbell could be an imposing figure on that Arizona defense. Early Doucet was a sound pick in the 3^rd round, as he is a slot receiver and will complement Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin on the outside perfectly. Doucet is a tough player who is willing to go over the middle and is able to create after the catch. He is also an outstanding route runner. Kenny Iwebema and Tim Hightower are two underrated players who were solid picks in the later rounds. With Antrel Rolle moving to safety, corner was a need, and the Cardinals addressed it. Campbell can fit in many different places on their defense, and he will allow the Cardinals to mix up defensive looks. Doucet essentially replaces Bryant Johnson and should be able to make an immediate impact with defenses being drawn towards Fitzgerald and Boldin. Hightower could surprise and contribute this year behind Edgerrin James.

New Orleans Saints – The New Orleans Saints had an outstanding draft, getting excellent value at each of their picks and addressing key need areas on their team. They kicked off their draft by trading up two spots to select DT Sedrick Ellis. Ellis is a penetrating force that will be an anchor of their defensive line for years to come. Will Smith has already established himself as a star at the defensive end position, and Ellis should come right in and give them another dynamic young defensive lineman. Sedrick Ellis will go a long way towards upgrading that porous Saints’ defense. Tracy Porter, selected 40^th overall, should become an outside nickel back for the Saints at the very least. Cornerback, a position of weakness for the Saints last year, is now a position of strength with Mike McKenzie, Randall Gay, Jason David, and Porter all on the depth chart. Porter’s speed and playmaking ability will be a welcome addition to their secondary. In the final three rounds, the Saints made several astute selections, adding DeMario Pressley, Carl Nicks, Taylor Mehlhaff, and Adrian Arrington to their team. Pressley is a defensive tackle with a lot of upside and experience coming from the new-age defensive lineman factory better know as North Carolina State, and his size, strength, quickness, and athleticism are all well above average for a defensive tackle. Nicks is another developmental pick who could turn into a starter at guard or right tackle if the team can improve his technique to go along with his outstanding frame and plus athleticism. Mehlhaff could very well be the team’s starting kicker going into the season, and Adrian Arrington showed flashes of playmaking ability in his junior year at Michigan. This was quietly one of, if not the, best drafts any team had.

Carolina Panthers – Although this was not my favorite individual team draft, the Panthers added a lot of very good talent to their team in an attempt to come back from a disappointing campaign and make the playoffs in the weak NFC. After selecting running back Jonathan Stewart, the Panthers elected to trade back up into the first round and select Jeff Otah, giving up the 43^rd and 109^th overall selections and their first round pick in the 2009 Draft. Running back was not a big need for the Panthers, as Deangelo Williams is a solid back who could have handled the load while splitting carries with a back taken later. However, Jonathan Stewart is a fantastic prospect who may have gone even sooner had it not been for a turf toe injury he has struggled with. Stewart is a thick, bruising back with excellent speed for a man his size. He also is a good receiver out of the backfield and has shown the ability to do many things most “power” backs have not traditionally had the skill-set to do. If his injury is resolved by training camp, Stewart could have one of the biggest initial impacts of any player in this draft. Despite re-signing Jordan Gross and Travelle Wharton, the team still believed they were weak along the offensive line and subsequently decided to pay a hefty price to move up and take Otah. Otah will likely start at one of the tackle positions, and the Panthers are hoping that he is able to make a major impact on a line that struggled at times last year. The Panthers made a pair of astute pickups in the 3^rd round, drafting CB Charles Godfrey and LB Dan Connor. Godfrey has outstanding measurables, is an excellent tackler, and was productive at Iowa. He could be a starter if developed correctly. Dan Connor is another linebacker produced by Linebacker U, Penn State. He is a tackle-machine and, despite his lack of ideal size or athleticism, is an excellent run stopper with his instincts and toughness. If he can improve his pass coverage, he could be a very good NFL starter. Gary Barnidge is an underrated tight end prospect, and the Panthers picked him up in the 5^th round. Nick Hayden will be a solid rotational defensive tackle in the NFL and was a solid value pick in the 6^th. Hilee Taylor, Geoff Schwartz, and Mackenzy Bernadeau are not well-known and were taken for depth and special teams. This was a solid draft, but they also mortgaged their 2009 draft.

Indianapolis Colts – It is amazing that the Colts are classified as a winner with their first pick at 59^th overall, but Bill Polian’s genius never ceases to amaze me. The three linemen the team drafted, Mike Pollack, Steve Justice, and Jamey Richard, all have the ability to start in the NFL. Pollack and Justice especially intrigue me, as they are both versatile and very athletic linemen. Philip Wheeler is a player that fits right into the Colts’ defensive scheme, as he is a phenomenal athlete with outstanding speed and the ability to make plays sideline-to-sideline. Jacob Tamme reminds me a lot of Dallas Clark, and could be his long-term replacement in Indianapolis. Marcus Howard is similar to Robert Mathis and, if the Colts get lucky, could have the same impact rushing the quarterback as Mathis has had. Tom Santi, another tight end, could develop into a solid backup tight end for the team and could bring some of what they lost when Ben Utecht departed as a free agent. Mike Hart could be a steal, as he has everything that Tony Dungy looks for in a backup running back. He can pass block, catch out of the backfield, and find holes in the running game with his very good vision. He may be the long-term backup to Joseph Addai after Kenton Keith’s run-in with the law. Pierre Garcon could be a small-school sleeper at receiver, as his production was amazing at Mount Union. However, his measurables are less-than-ideal for the NFL game. Indianapolis had an outstanding draft that replenished their positions of need with players who will provide depth for now but could develop into starters.

LOSERS:
Tennessee Titans – Tennessee made a very surprising selection in the 1^st round when they elected to select Chris Johnson, a scat back from East Carolina. He could have a Reggie Bush-type impact on the Tennessee offense, but this team has enough running backs. The team has drafted a running back in the second round in each of the past two drafts, and now they have drafted one in the first round. Chris Johnson is a bit overrated because of his speed, and I would have rather seen the Titans take their pick of the receivers in this draft with the 24^th overall selection. Jason Jones is a prospect I like, but I did not believe he was worthy of a second round selection. He has good size and athleticism and experience at both tackle and end, but I don’t believe he can come in and make the impact a second round pick should have. Craig Stevens, a primarily blocking tight end, is not the type of player you take in the third round. Vince Young needs more weapons; he doesn’t need players on the field specifically to block for him. William Hayes was a reach near the beginning of the fourth round and could have been had much later in this draft. Lavelle Hawkins is the one pick in the Tennessee Titans’ draft class, as he could be an outstanding slot receiver or above average #2 if he learns the intricacies of the game. I really liked him at Cal, and his performance at the Senior Bowl was outstanding. The Titans needed to address the wide receiver position, but it came a little late in this draft. Keglar should be a decent special teamer, and Williams has some potential. The Titans reached too much in this draft and did not adequately fill their major needs: replace Pac-Man Jones in that secondary and give Vince Young more weapons to work with. This is a good team, but this draft was average at the very best.

Jacksonville Jaguars – Todd McShay, while listening to his analysis on ESPN, constantly stated that the Jaguars gave up too much to move up to the 8^th overall draft position. However, that is not the reason that I classify the Jaguars as a loser in the 2008 Draft. Giving up two third round picks and a fourth along with their first to move up 18 spots in the first round is not a bad price, but Harvey is not the type of player you move up and use multiple picks to acquire. He is a good player with the potential to be a great pass rusher at the next level, but he is not ready to come in and make a huge impact in his rookie year. I would have much rather seen the Jaguars sit tight at 26 and pick Philip Merling, but they elected to trade four picks to move up and select Harvey. This was one of the most controversial moves of the draft, and I was not a big fan of it. I did really like the pick of Quentin Groves with the 52^nd overall selection, as I believe that he is an underrated prospect who has the measurables to be a very good NFL pass rusher. I also really liked the Trae Williams pick, as his play was comparable to Mike Jenkins at South Florida but lacked the same skill-set that Jenkins has. In the 5^th round, Williams could be a steal. Thomas Williams and Chauncey Washington, both from USC, were two picks that I didn’t particularly like. They were both primarily backups at Southern Cal and didn’t show a whole lot of potential. The reason why Jacksonville is in the “Losers” section is due to the trade they made to get Harvey. They should have stayed put at 26 and also tried to use their other picks to acquire a veteran like Jason Taylor. Harvey is a good prospect, but is not the type that will make a lot of plays as a rookie.

Detroit Lions – The Detroit Lions were probably the biggest “Losers” on Draft Day. Looking desperate to fill needs, they reached for Gosder Cherilus and Jordan Dizon with their first two picks. I like Cherilus, but I had him graded as a late-first, early-second prospect rather than a mid-first rounder. With Jeff Otah still on the board, this pick was surprising. Cherilus will be able to come in and anchor the right tackle spot for years, but he has little upside and does not have the athleticism to ever be able to play the left tackle position. Jordan Dizon is a good player who I liked, but he does not have the athleticism to be able to become a good starting linebacker in the NFL. He was extremely productive in college, but he is undersized and lacks the speed or fluidity to continue that success in the NFL. With the 45^th pick, Dizon was a huge reach. I liked the Lions’ next three picks, as they picked up Kevin Smith, Andre Fluellen, and Cliff Avril. Smith could start for the Lions this year and was extremely productive in college. Fluellen was an underrated prospect leading up to the draft, and his penetration ability will be welcomed in Detroit. He will be counted on to help replace Shaun Rogers. Cliff Avril is an interesting prospect and can be utilized in a number of different ways. He could be a smallish, pass-rushing defensive end or he could lose some weight and become a strong-side linebacker in the NFL. Either way, Avril is an outstanding football player who will be a solid addition to that Detroit defense. The last four picks are nothing to be criticized or applauded except for the outstanding story of Caleb Campbell, so those picks have little effect on my classification of the Detroit Lions as “Losers”.

STEALS:
3^rd round (70^th overall) – WR Earl Bennett, Vanderbilt (Chicago Bears) – Chicago’s receiving corps is weak, to say the least. Earl Bennett was phenomenally productive at Vandy, and it would not surprise me to see him start right away for the Bears. He isn’t big or blessed with premier athleticism, but he is a student of the game and has mastered the intricacies of the wide receiver position. Bennett is one of the more NFL-ready receivers in this class and will make an immediate impact for a Chicago team badly in need of improvements on the offensive side of the ball.

3^rd round (77^th overall) – DT Pat Sims, Auburn (Cincinnati Bengals) – Pat Sims is a prospect with a ton of potential. He surprisingly declared for the draft this year and was expected to go in the second round. The Bengals scooped him up in the third round and I expect him to start beside Domata Peko this year. Sims has some stamina issues, but he showed exceptional potential during his short time at Auburn. He has two things that cannot be taught in a football player: size and athleticism. He is improving his strength, and a year or two in an NFL weight program will maximize his potential. Also, as a young player, he is still working on the intricacies of his game. Sims was an outstanding 3^rd round pick by the Bengals and could be a star if he is developed correctly.

3^rd round (89^th overall) – RB Steve Slaton, West Virginia (Houston Texans) – After taking a lot of heat for passing Reggie Bush up to pick Mario Williams, Slaton will finally fill the role that Bush would have occupied in Houston. The Texans do not have an every-down back, and they are one of the many NFL teams that employ a running back-by-committee system. Slaton gives them something that they do not have in this rotation: a fast, shifty, dynamic outside runner who is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. Slaton, underrated by scouts because of his lack of a tough inside running game, is stepping into the ideal situation for him in Houston.

4^th round (115^th overall) - DT Dre Moore, Maryland (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – Physically, Dre Moore was one of the top defensive tackle prospects in this class. However, despite putting up very respectable numbers in college, Moore still was perceived as an underachiever. After an excellent offseason where he impressed in the Senior Bowl practices and at the Combine, he still fell to the 4^th round. His outstanding combination of strength and quickness will be an asset in the defensive scheme the Buccaneers run, and I expect him to reach his potential and become one of the best defensive linemen in this class.

4^th round (118^th overall) – LB Xavier Adibi, Virginia Tech (Houston Texans) – Xavier Adibi was once hyped as a potential first round prospect, but slipped for some reason despite posting respectable workout numbers and having a solid senior season. Adibi could develop into an outstanding weak-side linebacker in the NFL with his speed, athleticism, and sideline-to-sideline range. He should be a demon on special teams from the get-go, and I expect him to develop into a starter on that promising Houston defense.

5^th round (159^th overall) – CB Trae Williams, South Florida (Jacksonville Jaguars) – Trae Williams, despite being overshadowed by eventual first-round selection Mike Jenkins at South Florida, should be a solid pro corner. He adds to an already stacked Jacksonville defense and should step right in as the dime back at the very least. For most teams, he would be the nickel back, but Jacksonville is more than set with Rashean Mathis, Brian Williams, and Drayton Florence already entrenched as the first three corners. Williams is a polished corner who lacks ideal size and speed but will, at the very least, develop into a nickel corner.

6^th round (190^th overall) – DT Ahtyba Rubin, Iowa State (Cleveland Browns) – Ahtyba Rubin has been an underrated prospect throughout the entire draft process, and he fell further than almost any draft analyst had him falling. He is tailor-made for the 3-4 defense, and that is exactly what the Browns run on defense. Shaun Rogers was brought in to be the nose tackle, but Rubin can be a more-than-adequate backup for Rogers. The big man has had problems with stamina and consistent effort over the years, so Rubin should be able to get plenty of playing time to develop behind Rogers. This big, strong, run-stuffing tackle was an excellent value in the 6^th round.

6^th round (202^nd overall) – RB Mike Hart, Michigan (Indianapolis Colts) – Mike Hart is the typical underdog: he is not the biggest, most powerful, or fastest back, but he has been successful wherever he has played. There are not many situations where Hart would go where he would be successful, but Indianapolis is an ideal place for him to land. The ingredients for a running back to be successful in the Indianapolis offense are: blocking, receiving, and excellent vision. Hart is a good blocker, possesses solid hands out of the backfield, and has outstanding vision to make up for his lack of ideal talent. He should be a great backup to Joseph Addai for many years.

7^th round (220^th overall) – S Josh Barrett, Arizona State (Denver Broncos) – I had Barrett graded out as a second- or third-round prospect, and he fell all the way to the 7^th round. Barrett is far from a finished product, but he has the measurables of an elite safety. He is 6’2”, 223 pounds and ran a sub-4.4 second 40 yard dash at the Combine. Barrett could develop into a starting safety in the NFL if he can harness his aggressiveness and refine his technique and footwork, but the sky is the limit for Barrett. He could be the long-term replacement for John Lynch if all goes well in his development.

7^th round (224^th overall) – WR Steve Johnson, Kentucky (Buffalo Bills) – Buffalo went into this offseason touting a big receiver as one of their biggest needs. After selecting CB Leodis McKelvin in the first round, they picked James Hardy out of Indiana in the 2^nd. In the 7^th round, they selected another big receiver in Steve Johnson. He could come in and contribute as a rookie, as he has good size at 6’2”, 210 pounds and very good athleticism and upside. He still needs to refine his technique and overall game, but the upside is there and he could be a surprise in Buffalo this season.